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Particularly concerning to Kesitilwe is the amount of gambling advertising in sports-related content.

“At a break or at half time you see 10 to 20 [gambling] adverts,” he says. “It’s come to a point that oftentimes I even hear my kids singing [gambling adverts]. They’ll just keep asking, ‘But Daddy, what is this? What does this mean?’

“Our position is unequivocal. Betting is an adult activity. Operators must maintain effective age verification, marketing must not target or appeal to children and regulators; parents, schools and communities must reinforce the same message.”

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Lula said he intends to discuss the matter with his team and analyse potential measures to consider the social impact of online betting.

What the president does not acknowledge is that the government relies on revenue from the sector. In just the first seven months of 2026, BRL8.747 billion generated by sports betting has already flowed into public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service estimates the total could reach BRL16 billion by the end of the year. In 2025, nearly BRL9 billion was collected from sportsbooks.

The burning question is where such funds will come from if Lula shuts down the betting industry. Yet, no one points out to him that players will simply migrate to the illegal market. Betting will continue to exist, but without formal tax revenue, oversight or player protections.

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“If a customer finds black market sites that have all their preferred betting and gaming options, convenience dictates they will transfer a broad range of their expenditure there. Consumer recycling means that banning or restricting key products has a broader distortive impact on the entire market,” the report noted.

Notably for highly engaging verticals light online slots, if players are receiving a smaller-than-expected RTP (return to player), or bonuses have been restricted, they could again transition to an illegal offering where there are no such restrictions.

As has been flagged in previous reports, Regulus highlighted that the top 1% of active customers accounts for almost 50% of black market revenue across Europe. This follows a similar trend across licensed gambling as the report highlights “online gambling is a consumer discretionary expenditure item. This means a large proportion of expenditure is concentrated into a relatively small number of players.”